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International Journal of Statistika and Mathematika, ISSN: 2277- 2790 E-ISSN: 2249-8605

Volume 4, Issue 2, 2012 pp 27-32

Research Article

Multivariate Analysis in an Epidemiological Study of Coronary Heart Disease in Slum Population of Mumbai

Waingankar P. J.¹, Pandit D. D.², Thatkar P. V.³

^1,3 M.G.M. Medical College, Navi Mumbai, Maharashtra, INDIA.

² Terna Medical College, Navi Mumbai, Maharashtra, INDIA.

Academic Editor:  Dr. Dase R.K.

Apart from widespread clinical impression of a rapid spurt in the proportion of cases with Coronary Heart Disease (CHD) being evaluated by various levels of medical practice there are demographic and social reasons to apprehend a major epidemic of CHD in India and other developing countries. The objective of present study was to study independent effect of multiple factors on occurrence of Coronary Heart Disease in the age group of 25 to 64 years in urban slum community in Mumbai using multiple regression and logistic regression in a case control model. The present study was designed to be a case – control study conducted in an urban slum, community with a population of 35,967, served by Urban Health Centre, attached to the department of Preventive and Social Medicine of teaching institute. CHD was diagnosed using Rose Questionnaire and/or documentary evidence of MI. Total 186 cases (126 males and 60 females) of CHD was found. The equal number of control (186) were selected from the same community matching the two non-modifiablerisk factors age & sex in 1:1 proportion. At the end of P (IN) limit 0.05 the regression equation summarisedSystolic Blood Pressure, Cholesterol, Built, Type of Work, Family History of CHD, Diastolic Blood Pressure, Family Size,Smoking, Diabetes Mellitus and Tobacco Chewing as having independent significant association. In the logistic regressionstepwise forward entry method (WALD) including constant in the model, at the last step (considering the P limit of 0.05 asinclusion criteria) the classification table for study type shows Observed vs. Predicted correctness of 91.40 % with variablesas Family History of CHD, Family History of Hypertension, Hypertension, Diabetes, Systolic BP > 160, Diastolic BP > 104,Cholesterol > 220. The equation shows that with presence of two risk factors probability rises steeply and after the presenceof three factors there is no much scope to change.